Shanxi Securities·2025-05-20 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that cost and macroeconomic changes have driven a significant increase in polyester prices, with a long-term positive outlook for tire companies with global layouts [1][3] - The fire at the Kumho Tire factory in Gwangju is expected to negatively impact tire supply in South Korea [2][26] - The U.S. tire import dependency is projected to reach 68.8% in 2024, indicating a substantial supply gap that is unlikely to be filled in the short to medium term [5][26] Summary by Sections Chemical Market - The chemical market is experiencing dual support from cost and macroeconomic factors, with viscose and polyester leading in price increases, rising by 8.72% and 8.63% respectively [12][17] - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, while the PPI has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year [12][21] Tire Sector - The Kumho Tire factory fire has halted production and is expected to affect tire supply in South Korea, as this facility is a key manufacturing center [2][27] - The tire industry is facing challenges due to U.S. tariff policies, which cover major tire-exporting countries, making it difficult for U.S. markets to meet demand [5][26] - Tire operating rates in China have shown improvement, with semi-steel tire operating rates at 78.33% and full-steel tire rates at 65.09%, both increasing significantly week-on-week [28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on tire companies with diversified global operations, such as Senqilin, Sailun Tire, and Linglong Tire, due to their competitive advantages in the current market environment [5][33] - The report emphasizes that the cost advantages of Chinese tire manufacturers are expected to become more pronounced under the current tariff conditions [5][26]