棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，寻找下方支撑，豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡为主

Report Overview - Title: "Soybean Oil: Weak Driving Force in the Soy Complex, Mainly Range-Bound" - Date: May 20, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is mainly range-bound due to the weak driving force in the soy complex [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 7,984 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and (night session) was 8,054 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.88%. Trading volume was 514,650 lots, a decrease of 154,250 lots, and open interest was 397,913 lots, an increase of 10,473 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 7,754 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%, and (night session) was 7,780 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34%. Trading volume was 378,133 lots, a decrease of 13,476 lots, and open interest was 602,914 lots, a decrease of 2,419 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,277 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20%, and (night session) was 9,397 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.29%. Trading volume was 352,218 lots, a decrease of 105,292 lots, and open interest was 287,993 lots, a decrease of 892 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 3,884 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.54%, and (night session) was 3,915 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.85% [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 49.48 cents/pound with an increase of 1.12% [2] 3.1.2 Spot Data - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 960 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [2] 3.1.3 Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 566 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 406 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 23 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.4 Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 1,363 yuan/ton, compared to 1,293 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 230 yuan/ton, compared to - 252 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 4 yuan/ton, compared to - 6 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 10 yuan/ton, compared to 8 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 204 yuan/ton, compared to 181 yuan/ton the previous day [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the 9.5% export tariff range. The reference price in June is 3,926.59 ringgit/ton, compared to 4,449.35 ringgit/ton in May [3] - SPPOMA: From May 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 6.34%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.41%, and production increased by 8.50% [5] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, compared to 48% the previous week, 50% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 53%. The soybean emergence rate was 34%, compared to 17% the previous week, 25% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 23% [5] - Brazil's Secex: In the first three weeks of May 2025, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, a 11.34% increase compared to the average daily export volume in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [5] - Abiove: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is 1.697 billion tons (previously 1.696 billion tons). The soybean crushing volume forecast is 57.5 million tons. The soybean export volume forecast is slightly lowered to 1.082 billion tons (previously 1.085 billion tons). The soybean oil export volume forecast is 1.4 million tons, and the soybean oil production forecast remains at 11.45 million tons [6] - Buenos Aires Grain Exchange: Due to recent storms, the 2024/25 soybean crop in north - western Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, may suffer "significant losses". The estimated soybean production in Argentina for 2024/25 is 50 million tons. There are still 730,000 hectares of soybean crops in Buenos Aires Province that have not been harvested. New precipitation may cause further losses [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 - The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]