GF SECURITIES·2025-05-20 06:17Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - In April, the net foreign exchange settlement reached a high level for the same period, with banks' net settlement amounting to 42.4 billion yuan, continuing to grow by 41.8 billion yuan month-on-month. The net settlements for goods, services, and capital and financial projects were 227.9 billion yuan, -99.2 billion yuan, and -92.9 billion yuan respectively, indicating an increase in settlement willingness among enterprises and residents [7][16] - The appreciation of the RMB against the SDR was significant, with the SDR to RMB exchange rate increasing by 0.68%. The USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP depreciated against the offshore RMB, reflecting a favorable trade situation and the global competitiveness of domestic manufacturing [7][47] - The long-term China-US interest rate spread slightly widened, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4 basis points and the 10-year US Treasury yield increasing by 6 basis points. The spread between the 10-year Chinese and US bonds expanded by 2 basis points [7][48] Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Settlement - In April, the net foreign exchange settlement for banks reached 42.4 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 41.8 billion yuan. The net settlements for goods, services, and capital and financial projects were 227.9 billion yuan, -99.2 billion yuan, and -92.9 billion yuan respectively, showing a growing willingness to settle [16][17] - The forward net settlement contract amount significantly increased, reaching 104.8 billion yuan in April, up by 47.4 billion yuan month-on-month, indicating expectations of a stronger RMB [16] Arbitrage Trading Returns - The RMB appreciated significantly against the SDR, with the exchange rates for USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP against the offshore RMB showing depreciation. This reflects a favorable trade situation and the global competitiveness of domestic manufacturing [47] - The actual annual yield for RMB arbitrage trading against US Treasuries was calculated at 1.91% for 10-year bonds, down by 44 basis points from the previous period [48] Global Asset Performance - Chinese assets performed relatively weakly compared to global indices, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.09% and the Nasdaq increasing by 7.15%. A-shares performed better, ranking third among major economic indices [49]