Investment Rating - The report maintains a supply chain congestion scale rating of '2', indicating a moderate level of congestion [3][6][52]. Core Insights - The congestion index has decreased slightly by 1% week-over-week, while the bottleneck scale remains unchanged at '2' [3][6]. - The number of container ships waiting to dock on the West Coast is stable at 1, and the East Coast backlog remains at 5 [16][17]. - Ocean container shipping rates from China to the US West Coast have decreased by 38% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing improvements in shipping costs [4][28]. Summary by Sections Supply Chain Metrics - The average weekly bottleneck score for May is '2.0', significantly lower than the peak congestion levels observed in December 2021/January 2022 [8][52]. - West Coast rail intermodal traffic growth has decelerated, showing an increase of approximately 4% year-over-year [4][23]. - Chassis dwell times at US ports have decreased, indicating improved efficiency in container handling [4][27]. Transport Subsector Analysis - The report highlights that if supply chain pressures continue to ease, the index could potentially return to '1' by 2025 [11]. - US Rails (NSC, UNP, CSX) and intermodal marketing companies (SNDR, JBHT) are identified as potential beneficiaries of reduced congestion, as they were significantly impacted by previous supply chain issues [11]. Shipping and Delivery Times - The average door-to-door shipping time from China to the US is currently 54 days, which is closer to pre-pandemic levels compared to peak congestion times exceeding 80 days [39]. - The percentage of containers dwelling for more than 5 days has stabilized at around 8% [15][34]. Labor and Capacity Indicators - The LMI Transportation Capacity Index indicates a slight expansion in transportation capacity, with a reading of 53.6 in March [43]. - Truck transportation employee counts remain below pre-pandemic highs, reflecting ongoing labor market challenges in the sector [41].
追踪美国供应链拥堵情况:高盛供应链拥堵指数5月19日;周度指数略有下降,指数等级维持在‘2’
Goldman Sachs·2025-05-20 05:45