综合晨报-20250520

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and potential investment opportunities and risks for each sector. Short - term and long - term outlooks are presented, with specific trading strategies recommended for certain commodities. Summary by Commodity Category Energy - Crude Oil: Short - term may show an oscillatory upward trend supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical factors, but the mid - term supply - demand pressure limits the upside. Watch the resistance levels of Brent at $70/barrel and SC at 510 yuan/barrel [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Singapore 380 cracking has strengthened, but there are opportunities for domestic FU cracking to weaken. LU cracking lacks continuous support and has shifted to an oscillatory pattern [21]. - Natural Gas (LPG): The price may decline in the short - term due to supply pressure and weakening PDH operation rate, but pay attention to the recovery of chemical demand [23]. - Bitumen: Profit is relatively prominent, with expected decline in production capacity utilization. Northern demand is increasing, while southern demand is affected by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly [22]. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are in an oscillatory adjustment phase. Gold has strong support at $3000/ounce, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - Base Metals: - Copper: Domestic consumption may weaken after mid - May. Maintain short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum: Inventory reduction has slowed down. Pay attention to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5]. - Alumina: Although there are concerns about supply, the overall situation is still one of oversupply. Wait for short - selling opportunities after the market sentiment calms down [6]. - Zinc: Supply is in the recovery stage, while demand is weak. Maintain a short - allocation view in the range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead: Consumption in May was better than expected, but there are concerns about substitution. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Nickel is in a weak adjustment phase. The NPI price has declined, and the market is waiting for a new short - selling opportunity [9]. - Tin: The long - term trend is under pressure due to supply and demand concerns. Hold short positions near 265,000 yuan or the MA60 moving average [10]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oilseeds: - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: Supply is becoming more abundant, and the spot price of soybean meal is weak. Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term and look for long - term buying opportunities [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: U.S. soybean oil policy has fluctuations. Domestic soybean oil faces pressure from large - scale arrivals, and palm oil is in a production - increasing period. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range [36]. - Corn: The price is oscillating weakly. There is a large supply of circulating grain, and the substitution advantage of wheat is emerging [38]. - Livestock and Poultry: - Hogs: The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the spot price may decline, putting downward pressure on the futures price [39]. - Eggs: The production capacity is expected to increase until September. The price is seasonally weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term [40]. - Other Agricultural Products: - Cotton: The U.S. cotton planting rate has increased, and Brazil has raised its production forecast. Domestic cotton imports are low. The price is affected by Sino - U.S. negotiations. Consider a bull - spread option strategy [41]. - Sugar: Brazilian production may increase, and domestic inventory pressure is light. The price is expected to oscillate [42]. - Apples: The market is focused on new - season production estimates. The fruit - setting rate may be low, but the production is still uncertain. Wait and see for now [43]. - Wood: The price is running weakly. Supply pressure has decreased, but demand is in the off - season. Wait and see [44]. - Paper Pulp: The price has increased slightly. Port inventory has decreased significantly, but demand is still weak. Consider light - position buying on dips [45]. Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: A - shares are oscillating, and the major indexes may wait for new drivers. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations [46]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The over - sold recovery of the bond market is almost complete. The bulls may oscillate within a range. Consider a curve - steepening strategy [47]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The short - term focus is on the actual implementation of freight rate increases. The mid - term depends on the improvement of supply - demand through U.S. demand. Adopt an inter - period arbitrage strategy [20].