华宝期货晨报煤焦-20250520

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the potential peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the prices are currently treated as a rebound with a bearish outlook [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly, hitting new lows continuously. The first - round reduction of coke spot prices has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction [2]. Fundamental Situation - Most coking enterprises in the region maintain their previous production - limiting status, with normal production rhythms. Some coking enterprises have slightly increased production. The recent shipment situation has improved compared to before, and most coking plants keep their coke inventories at a low level [2]. Downstream Demand - Last week, the steel mill's hot metal production was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 million tons. There is a trend of peak - to - decline in hot metal production recently. Some steel mills have plans for production reduction and maintenance, and due to relevant policies, steel mills' procurement is cautious, mainly on a demand - based basis [2]. Mongolian Coal Import - After the port inventory pressure has been continuously alleviated, the import of Mongolian coal has quickly recovered to the level of the same period last year. However, some imported Mongolian coal has become "dead stock" in the warehouse. Given the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the recent recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance has put obvious pressure on the market [3].