2025年中期宏观展望：AI、关税与黄金的启示

Economic Outlook - The nominal GDP growth rate in China is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, with real GDP growth stabilizing at around 5%[129] - The external demand continues to be a major driver of growth, with foreign trade increasingly contributing to China's economic recovery[20] Trade and Tariff Implications - The U.S. tariff levels are expected to rise above 25% by 2025, surpassing the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act levels[85] - The potential scenarios for U.S. tariff strategies include partial tariffs, comprehensive tariffs, and forming alliances against China, which could lead to significant economic restructuring[88] AI and Economic Transformation - AI is seen as a potential new "Ford Model," driving investment and productivity, but it may also lead to reduced job demand, particularly in low-skill sectors[78] - The rapid increase in private sector investment in AI indicates a shift towards enhancing operational efficiency rather than creating new industries[73] Gold and Monetary Policy - The relationship between U.S. trade policies and gold prices suggests a potential return to mercantilist principles, impacting monetary stability and inflation[100] - Historical shifts in trade policy have consistently influenced the monetary order, with the U.S. moving from a gold standard to a credit-based system[97] Long-term Strategies - Long-term responses to the challenges posed by AI, tariffs, and gold should focus on income distribution reforms to stimulate domestic demand[108] - The restructuring of production capacity is essential to address inefficiencies and improve profitability in the face of external pressures[115]