股指早报：美10年期利率回到4.5%附近，A股震荡蓄势中-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, suppressing risk assets. Attention should be paid to the outflow of funds from U.S. assets. The main domestic contradiction lies in the economic fundamentals. Market funds are in a state of rotation, and the index is in the process of oscillating and accumulating momentum. Currently, the style is still a balanced allocation, with a balanced allocation between the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 1000, but a slight tilt towards the technology - growth style is advisable [2][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Overseas Overnight - The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate in April was - 1%, lower than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of - 0.7%, indicating an economic slowdown. After Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, the Fed carried out market expectation management. Under the Fed's statements to downplay the impact, market anxiety eased. The U.S. dollar index fell and then rebounded, finally closing down 0.62% at 100.37; U.S. Treasury yields rose and then fell, finally closing up; gold closed up, and the three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly up. The uncertainty and anxiety in the market will not subside in the short term, and the outflow of funds from U.S. assets should be tracked [1][6] 3.1.2 Domestic Market Review - The April economic data was in line with high - frequency data, with declines in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment. Due to the impact of tariffs in April, the decline in the economic fundamentals was in line with expectations. The Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation in May revised the pessimistic expectations, and the economy in May is expected to recover to some extent. On Monday, the market showed an oscillating and differentiated trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.08% and the ChiNext Index down 0.33%. The activity of individual stocks was fair, mainly driven by the news of the revised "Administrative Measures for Major Asset Reorganizations of Listed Companies". The environmental protection, real estate, military, and social service sectors led the gains, while the food and beverage, automobile, bank, and non - ferrous sectors led the losses. There were 3,560 rising stocks and 1,691 falling stocks in the whole market. Multiple state - owned and joint - stock banks will lower RMB deposit rates on May 20 [2][7] 3.1.3 Important Information - The U.S. Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting. The UK and the EU have reached agreements in multiple fields, and India is discussing a U.S. trade agreement. Putin is ready to cooperate on a peace - negotiation memorandum with Ukraine, and there are signs of a cease - fire negotiation. The EU may propose to lower the price cap of Russian seaborne oil to $50 per barrel. In April, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic bonds by $10.9 billion, and turned to net - buy domestic stocks in late April. China's foreign trade shows resilience, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate RMB assets is increasing. China urges the U.S. to correct its wrong practices on chip export controls. The current valuation of A - shares is relatively low, and the allocation value is more prominent. China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank have lowered RMB deposit rates [8][9] 3.1.4 Today's Strategy - The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to around 4.5%, suppressing risk assets. Attention should be paid to the outflow of funds from U.S. assets. The main domestic contradiction lies in the economic fundamentals. Market funds are in a state of rotation, and the index is in the process of oscillating and accumulating momentum. Currently, the style is still a balanced allocation, with a balanced allocation between the Shanghai 50 and the CSI 1000, but a slight tilt towards the technology - growth style is advisable [10] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The document provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, and position changes [12][13] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of various spot market indices such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices, and presents the valuation and trading volume data of the market through multiple charts [35][36][37] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The document presents charts on the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, reflecting the liquidity situation in the market [55]