瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand, with steady inventory reduction. Option market sentiment is bearish, and it is also recommended for light - position oscillating trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts were 50,425 tons, down 94,950 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 1,719 lots, down 12,309 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19, up 0.09 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was 20,210 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum was 155 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 134 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina was 26 million tons, down 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 29.51 million tons, up 33.55 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 97.60%, up 0.10% [2]. - The output of aluminum products was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, up 1 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum alloy was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 2.604 million vehicles, down 0.4406 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 11.67%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.46%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 10.05%, down 0.0009%; the option call - put ratio was 0.83, up 0.0841 [2]. Industry News - In April, China's economy grew steadily under pressure. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - In April, the new - home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly. The year - on - year decline of housing prices in all tiers continued to narrow [2]. - Starting from May 20, many state - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks will cut the RMB deposit listed interest rates again [2]. - The European Commission lowered the European economic growth forecast. It is predicted that the eurozone GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [2]. - Fed officials made statements on economic policies and the Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating [2].