铁矿石：出口预期上调，矿价估值修复

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The unexpected easing of Sino-US trade relations has led to an upward revision of iron ore valuation. With the suspension of 90-day (24% reciprocal tariffs), the market has adjusted its expectations of declining exports. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discounts, and inventory reduction, resulting in greater price elasticity [3]. - In the short term, the trading focus tends to be on strong reality and sentiment repair. With the domestic macro - policy in a vacuum and weak expectations of incremental policies, the market is expected to be more dominated by macro - sentiment repair, and the influence of fundamentals will decrease [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The supply of foreign mines has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. In May, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment trend, with the supporting force on the supply side gradually weakening [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a historically high level. Iron water production has declined to 244.8 (-0.87) on a month - on - month basis, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, with a high profit rate for steel mills and an upward - revised export expectation, iron water production is expected to decline at a high level with a gentle slope, having a small impact on prices in the short term [4]. Inventory - Given the high domestic demand in May, port inventory is expected to remain stable or decline. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased inventory reduction at a high level cannot provide upward momentum [5]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the price center shifting upward periodically. The pressure range for the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range for the outer - market FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [5].