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Charter Communications Inc.:宪章传播公司(CHTR):宣布收购考克斯的协议;行业背景要点-20250520

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Sell rating for Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) due to ongoing competitive challenges from both high-end fiber competitors and low-end fixed wireless services [2][12]. Core Insights - Charter Communications has announced an agreement to acquire Cox Communications in a cash and stock transaction valued at $34.5 billion, which is expected to provide significant scale benefits and approximately $500 million in annualized cost synergies [1][3]. - The acquisition is projected to be accretive to free cash flow per share, with Cox being acquired at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.4x, while Charter currently trades at 6.5x [1][3]. - The combined entity will have a broadband customer base of 35.9 million, making it the largest cable operator by passings at 69.5 million, surpassing Comcast's 64 million [3]. Transaction Details - The acquisition is expected to close in mid-2026, with Cox owning 23% of the combined entity's shares at the time of closure [3]. - Charter anticipates revenue and EBITDA growth from the deal, driven by churn reduction and enhanced competition for national business customers [3]. - Cox currently has 5.9 million broadband customers with a penetration rate of 48%, while Charter has 30 million broadband customers with a 53% penetration rate [3]. Financial Metrics - The report sets a 12-month price target for Charter at $315, indicating a downside potential of 26.3% from the current price of $427.25 [11][15]. - Revenue forecasts for Charter are projected to be $55.1 billion in 2024, with EBITDA expected to reach $22.6 billion [15]. - Charter's free cash flow yield is estimated at 6.8% for 2025, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.1x [15].