Sunrise (SUNN.S): 2025年第一季度收入略低于预期，息税折旧摊销前利润略超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for Sunrise with a 12-month price target of SFr41.00, indicating a downside potential of 1.4% from the current price of SFr41.60 [9]. Core Insights - Sunrise's 1Q25 results showed a slight miss on revenues, down by 1.8% to CHF722.1 million, primarily due to declines in low-margin equipment revenue. However, adjusted EBITDAaL beat expectations by 2.1%, reaching CHF240 million, supported by cost savings [1][5]. - Subscription revenue trends improved, with a decline of 2.2% compared to a 3.5% decline in the previous quarter, driven by residential services. The company expects continued improvement in subscription revenue due to price increases implemented at the end of 1Q25 [1][6]. - Despite the positive outlook on subscription revenue, overall revenue trends remain negative, and adjusted EBITDAaL is broadly ex-growth, limiting the potential for return on invested capital (ROIC) improvement [1][7]. Detailed Summary - Revenue Performance: - 1Q25 revenue was CHF722.1 million, missing consensus by 1.8%. Year-over-year growth was down 3.3% [5]. - Residential service revenue declined by 4.4%, while business and wholesale service revenue grew by only 0.6% [6]. - Subscriber Metrics: - Residential postpaid mobile RGUs increased by 11,000, a decrease from previous quarters. Broadband net adds were 4,000 [6]. - Business postpaid mobile net adds were only 1,000, significantly lower than previous quarters [6]. - Guidance for FY25: - The company reiterated its guidance for FY25, expecting broadly stable revenue and adjusted EBITDAaL growth in the low single digits. Capex is projected to be 15-16% of revenue, with adjusted free cash flow expected between CHF370 million and CHF390 million [8].