BABA(09988) 华安证券·2025-05-20 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In FY25Q4, Alibaba's revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%); the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%); the Local Life Group's revenue was 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), slightly below expectations by 1.7%, with adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan (up 28%); the Cainiao Group's revenue was 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), below expectations by 14%, with adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan (up 55%); the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), exceeding expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%); the Digital Entertainment Group's revenue was 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), with adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5][6] - The CMR performance of Taobao was impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 12% to 71.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, and the take rate improved year-over-year [6] - The cloud business accelerated growth, with revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations; the capital expenditure for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, with a total of 86 billion yuan for FY2025, significantly higher than 32.1 billion yuan in FY2024 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6%, respectively; Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 7.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% [6][10]