Ubs Securities·2025-05-20 07:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Trip.com with a price target of US$76.00, while the current price is US$65.54 [7][26]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported 1Q25 revenues of Rmb13.8 billion, reflecting a 16.2% year-over-year increase, which was largely in line with expectations. The operating expenses were 3.9% below estimates, primarily due to reduced marketing spending, leading to a non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.0 billion and a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29.2%, exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The company demonstrated strong performance across segments, with accommodation revenue rising by 23%, transportation by 8%, and corporate travel by 12% year-over-year. Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings have recovered to over 120% of pre-COVID levels, significantly outperforming the industry's international flight capacity recovery of 83.9% [3][4]. - Management remains optimistic about sustaining growth, supported by resilient demand and favorable policies, indicating confidence in the company's outlook [4][5]. Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for 1Q25 include net revenue of Rmb13.8 billion, non-GAAP operating profit of Rmb4.0 billion, and non-GAAP net profit of Rmb4.2 billion, which exceeded consensus estimates by 2.2% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Forecasted revenues for Trip.com are projected to grow from Rmb20.0 billion in 2022 to Rmb96.8 billion by 2029, with net earnings expected to increase from Rmb1.3 billion in 2022 to Rmb34.4 billion by 2029 [6]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong EBIT margin, projected at 28.2% for 2025, with a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 20.4% [6]. Market Position - Trip.com is positioned as a leading travel service provider in China and internationally, operating multiple brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company aims to generate 15-20% of total revenue from international businesses in the next three to five years [11].