Kogan.com：Mighty Ape和营销再投资对2025年下半年EBITDA构成压力。垂直领域和市场表现出色-20250520

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Kogan.com with a price target of A$5.20, while the current price is A$4.52 as of May 19, 2025 [3][23]. Core Insights - Kogan.com is experiencing challenges in its second half of FY25, with a reported EBITDA of A$6.8 million for the first four months of 2025, which is below the consensus estimate of A$16 million for the second half [2][3]. - The company’s Mighty Ape segment has not yet recovered, and increased marketing expenditures are driving customer growth but negatively impacting earnings [2][3]. - The report anticipates a downward revision in consensus EBITDA expectations due to the lag in sales translating to gross profit [2]. Financial Highlights - Kogan's revenue projections show a decline from A$718 million in FY22 to an estimated A$507 million in FY25, with a gradual increase expected thereafter [6]. - The estimated diluted EPS for FY25 is A$0.14, with projections of A$0.22 for FY26 and A$0.26 for FY27 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a net cash position, with net debt projected to be A$12 million by FY25 [6]. Market Position - Kogan.com is recognized as Australia's largest pure-play online retailer, operating in a high-growth online retail market valued at approximately A$18 billion [10]. - The company has diversified its offerings beyond electronics into general merchandise, travel packages, mobile/internet plans, and insurance policies [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA multiples for valuation, with an EV/EBITDA multiple projected to decrease from 47.8x in FY22 to 11.4x in FY25 [6][11]. - The forecasted stock return is estimated at 18.6%, combining a price appreciation of 15.0% and a dividend yield of 3.6% [9].