海外经济政策跟踪：日本GDP偏弱：进口拖累较大

Economic Indicators - In April, U.S. retail sales growth weakened, with year-on-year growth dropping to 4.8%[10] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May fell to 50.8, below market expectations[9] - April's U.S. CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, with core CPI remaining stable[20] Global Market Performance - From May 9 to May 16, 2025, the S&P 500 rose by 5.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.1%[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%[7] - The dollar index increased to 101.0, with the yen depreciating and the renminbi appreciating[7] Japan's Economic Situation - Japan's Q1 GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, missing market expectations of -0.1%[28] - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by 3.3 percentage points, with imports rising significantly while exports fell[28] - Private consumption growth was weak at 0.2%, contributing only 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth[29] Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve remains cautious regarding future interest rate cuts due to tariff uncertainties[36] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also cautious, with potential rate cuts expected if inflation approaches 2%[39] - The Bank of Japan is hesitant to raise rates amid high uncertainty related to tariffs and economic outlook[39] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected adjustments in overseas monetary policies and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[41]