Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Modern Dairy [2][9][6] Core Views - The turning point for milk prices is approaching, with expectations for both volume and price increases [3][5] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, leading to an industry-leading ability to reduce costs [4][13] - The industry is experiencing a pronounced Matthew effect, with the company gaining market share despite overall declines in milk production [5][14] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Modern Dairy are estimated at RMB 14.44 billion, RMB 15.28 billion, and RMB 16.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 310 million, RMB 750 million, and RMB 1.1 billion for the same years [6][15] - The company’s gross margin for raw milk business is projected to improve to 31.2% in 2024, reflecting effective cost management [4][13] Market Dynamics - The raw milk price has stabilized at RMB 3.07 per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [3][11] - The cattle herd is decreasing at a rate of approximately 40,000 head per month, contributing to the anticipated rebound in milk prices [12][3] - The company’s raw milk sales reached 2.893 million tons in 2024, a 13.6% year-on-year increase, indicating strong performance against industry trends [5][14]
现代牧业：奶价拐点将至，量价齐升可期-20250520