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房地产行业快评报告:4月行业数据跟踪点评:融资支持政策持续发力
Wanlian Securities·2025-05-20 09:59

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The real estate industry investment has weakened in April, with construction starts and completions remaining at low levels. Sales are expected to experience a seasonal decline, indicating a bottoming phase that requires ongoing monitoring of future trends. A series of financial policies continue to support the industry's recovery, with domestic loan funding turning positive year-on-year from January to April. Policies such as interest rate cuts and financing support are expected to improve the industry's financial situation [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Investment - The investment sector has seen a more significant decline, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to previous values. The investment growth rate for April alone fell by 11.5%, widening the decline by 1.2 percentage points from March. The industry continues to deplete inventory, and factors such as sales and funding challenges hinder the replenishment of inventory, leading to a weak investment outlook in the short term [2]. Land - Core cities remain the primary investment areas, with land transactions in 100 cities showing a recovery. From January to April, the total transaction price of land in these cities increased by 8.8% year-on-year, while the planned construction area decreased by 10.1%. In April, both the planned construction area and total transaction price saw a month-on-month increase, with a land transaction premium rate of 9.7%, maintaining a relatively high level for the year [2]. Construction Starts and Completions - New construction starts and completions remain low. From January to April, the area of new construction started decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q1. In April, the monthly decline was 22.3%, widening by 3.5 percentage points from the previous month. The completion sector is expected to remain under pressure due to declining sales and new construction, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% from January to April and a significant drop of 28.2% in April alone [2]. Sales - The sales sector experienced a seasonal decline month-on-month, with year-on-year changes of -2.8% in sales area and -3.2% in sales amount from January to April. The sales price also saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a more pronounced drop of 4.3% in April compared to the same month last year [3]. Funding - Under policy support, the growth rate of domestic loans has turned positive. From January to April, the sources of funds saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with domestic loans increasing by 0.8%, while self-raised funds, deposits, and personal mortgages saw declines of 6.8%, 3.0%, and 8.5% respectively [7].