Workflow
2025年1-4月统计局房地产数据点评:行业边际下行压力加大,政策宽松需更进一步
Changjiang Securities·2025-05-20 10:45

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The sales performance in the first quarter of 2025 was acceptable, but starting in April, there has been increasing downward pressure on both volume and price, even in first-tier cities. The pressures on construction starts, funding, and investment continue to expand, indicating that the performance in the second quarter may be under pressure. The probability of policy easing is gradually increasing [2][11]. - The rapid decline phase in volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. However, short-term downward pressure is increasing, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of policy adjustments. The importance of real estate to domestic demand cannot be overlooked, emphasizing the need to focus on quality real estate companies with core assets, local leaders benefiting from debt relief, and state-owned enterprises with stable cash flows [2][11]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first four months of 2025, national sales of commercial housing decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with April seeing a 6.7% decline. The sales volume pressure is increasing, aligning with trends observed among the top 100 real estate companies and key cities [11]. - The price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively in April, with first-tier cities experiencing marginal price stability [11]. Construction and Investment - New construction area in the first four months of 2025 decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, with April alone seeing a 22.1% drop. The completion area also fell by 16.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction sector [11]. - Funding for real estate companies decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a slight increase of 0.8%. However, overall funding pressures remain significant, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year [11]. Market Outlook - The real estate industry is approaching a balanced state after years of rapid adjustments, but structural contradictions still need to be addressed. The most challenging times for the industry may be passing, with expectations of single-digit declines in sales and investment for 2025, while construction starts are likely to continue double-digit declines [11]. - The report suggests focusing on quality real estate companies with core assets and those benefiting from debt relief, as well as state-owned enterprises with stable cash flows, given the current market conditions [2][11].