暖通空调跟踪:补库存需求超预期，高温天气去库存价格战

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The air conditioning market is experiencing intensified online competition, with April shipment growth slowing down [1]. - The domestic air conditioning shipment volume in April was 12.76 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, which was below market expectations [3]. - The online retail price of air conditioners has been declining since the beginning of the year, with the average price dropping to 2,609 yuan per unit in April, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.5% [3][44]. - The export shipment volume of air conditioners in April was 9.82 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, reflecting a shift of orders to overseas production bases due to increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. [3][52]. - The central air conditioning market is under pressure from a sluggish real estate market, but exports continue to grow, with a 39.8% year-on-year increase in 2024 [58]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and Export Growth - The "Old for New" policy has positively impacted domestic demand, with a significant increase in retail sales of home appliances [5]. - The export growth of home appliances has slowed down due to U.S. tariff risks, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in the first four months of 2025 [21]. 2. Air Conditioning Industry Growth - April domestic air conditioning shipments were lower than expected, but there is optimism for the upcoming months due to government subsidies [24]. - Online retail prices for air conditioners are declining, leading to increased competition among brands [44]. - The export volume of air conditioners has slightly decreased, with a notable shift of orders to overseas production bases [52]. 3. Central Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps - The central air conditioning market is facing challenges due to a weak domestic economy, but exports are performing well [58]. - The heat pump market is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at promoting high-quality development [66]. 4. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The home appliance sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.64, below the historical average [75]. - Recommended companies include Gree Electric, Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Visual, and Boss Electric, with a focus on those less affected by the U.S. market [81].