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2025 年 4 月经济数据点评:外部扰动,仍有韧性
国泰海通证券·2025-05-20 11:09

Economic Resilience - In April, despite external shocks, the domestic economy showed resilience with production and consumption growth rates at 6.1% and 5.1% respectively[4] - The easing of tariffs in May is expected to lead to a short-term recovery in external demand, benefiting domestic production and investment[4] Production Insights - Industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year in April, a slight decrease from 7.7% in March, but still maintaining a high growth rate[8] - Emerging industries such as power generation equipment and industrial robots continue to show strong performance, with some sectors exceeding 100% year-on-year growth[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in April was 5.1%, with a decline from March's figures, indicating a mixed performance across different categories[19] - Categories benefiting from government policies, such as home appliances, saw growth rates above 25%, while sectors like automobiles faced challenges due to high base effects[21] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth for January to April was 4.0%, with April's growth at 3.6%, reflecting a slight decline from March[24] - Real estate investment continued to drag on the economy, with a year-on-year decline of 11.3% in April[24] Risk Factors - Increased uncertainty in external demand poses risks to the economic outlook, necessitating continued policy support for domestic demand[30]