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全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第78期）-20250520
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-20 11:59

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 78, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: May 20, 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - CEA: CEA21 is weak, CEA23 is strong, and CEA24 is stable. The listed volume is 146,800 tons, and the bulk volume is 700,000 tons [6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume is 100 tons, and the average transaction price is 84 yuan/ton (-4.55%) [6] Group 3: Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [7] Group 4: Core Logic - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market appear, and the market trading volume significantly increases. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [9] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, and there is still potential selling pressure. The market price is oscillating at the bottom and lacks upward momentum. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [9] Group 5: Specific Data CEA | Category | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 69.60 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 71.06 | 71.02 | | Increase/Decrease (%) | 0.00% | -0.71% | 0.00% | 0.75% | 0.01% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.06 | -0.04 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 67.96 | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 80.56 | | Listed Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.12 | 10.56 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 70.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Total Transaction Amount (10,000 yuan) | 70.00 | 0.00 | 221.75 | 5506.85 | 0.00 | [11][12] CCER - Transaction Average Price: 84 yuan/ton - Increase/Decrease: -4.55% - Transaction Amount: 840,000 yuan - Trading Volume: 100 tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 1.7587 million tons [13]