化工日报-20250520

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products including urea, methanol, polyolefins, styrene, polyester, chlor-alkali, and glass soda ash, and provides investment ratings and trend judgments for each product [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol has been continuously falling. Multiple domestic plants have resumed production, increasing supply pressure and causing enterprises to destock. Last week, the import volume decreased, and the MTO plant operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly, leading to destocking at ports. This week, the import volume is expected to increase significantly, domestic production is high, and some olefin plants remain shut down. In May, it is the traditional off - season for methanol, and both inland and port areas are expected to accumulate inventory, with a weak fundamental situation [2] Urea - The urea futures market is mainly in a volatile adjustment. As export news is digested, it returns to the fundamental trading logic. Last week, production enterprises significantly destocked, while ports accumulated inventory. New plants in Xinjiang have been put into operation, and supply remains sufficient. It is currently the domestic demand peak season with alternating industrial and agricultural demand. With the implementation of stable export measures, the bullish sentiment in the market is fading, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [3] Polyolefins - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to decline in a volatile manner. For polyethylene, PE plants are entering the maintenance period, and domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly. There is an expectation of improved foreign trade orders, but market sentiment is cautious. Some factories' finished - product inventories have decreased, but downstream demand is mainly for rigid orders, providing limited support for prices. For polypropylene, some export - oriented enterprises are restocking due to expected order increases, but the overall downstream recovery is limited, and it is difficult to drive prices up. As the temperature rises, order - taking is expected to worsen, and the operating rate of some factories may decline further [4] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closed down. There is an expected increase in domestic production and imports of pure benzene, and its price may be weak in the short - term, providing insufficient cost support for styrene. In terms of supply and demand, port inventory is low, and there is a need for restocking. Styrene prices vary by region, with improved transactions in the Shandong market after price corrections, while spot transactions are weak in other markets [5] Polyester - Oil prices fluctuated downwards. The restart of Zhongtai PTA and the expected polyester production cut dragged down PX and PTA, with significant declines in the monthly and basis spreads. The terminal market is recovering, and polyester filament enterprises' inventory pressure has eased, with a slight improvement in cash flow. In the short - term, if production cuts increase, upstream enterprises may give more concessions to downstream. In the medium - term, if orders improve, the industry chain profit may reach a new balance and enter a volatile stage. Also, attention should be paid to the gasoline demand peak season and changes in the aromatic hydrocarbon market. The profit of the ethylene glycol industry has improved, especially for the syngas method. There are many planned plant overhauls in the short - term, with a positive supply outlook. In the far - month, there will be supply pressure from the resumption of US imports and restart of overhauled plants. The monthly spread is strong, but if polyester production cuts due to losses are realized, it may drag down the market. Driven by falling costs, the price of short fiber fluctuated weakly. Under high - operating - rate pressure, the processing margin is low. As raw material prices fall, short fiber passively restores profits. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of processing margin restoration driven by changes in short - fiber supply. Bottle chip is in the peak demand season, with increasing production and stable inventory, but the industry processing margin is still low. If production cuts are implemented, consider entering the market at low prices to capture processing margin restoration [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to face pressure from weak demand and high supply, and its futures price remains weak. Some plants that were under maintenance are expected to resume operation this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. Domestic demand is flat, and with the easing of tariffs, future product exports may improve. Due to weak domestic demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level. After the spot price of caustic soda was raised, the delivery volume did not increase significantly. This week, chlor - alkali plants in East China are under maintenance, boosting the regional liquid caustic soda price. The profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has recovered. Although downstream procurement prices have increased, the operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber have declined. Currently, the alumina price is rising, and it remains to be seen whether it can drive up the alumina operating rate. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the industry has restocked, so the futures price is expected to have limited upward momentum [7] Glass Soda Ash - Glass futures fluctuated narrowly. The sales in Shahe are okay, while the performance in other regions is average. Currently, inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream, with high pressure. With the upcoming rainy season, the industry faces shipment pressure. Upstream costs have decreased, and coal production lines still have profits, with production capacity operating at a narrow range. Processing orders have improved month - on - month but are still weak year - on - year, and downstream payment collection is poor. Currently, inventory pressure is high, and the driving force is weak. However, due to the low valuation and macro - factors, short - selling should be done with caution, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs. Soda ash is in a weak state. Qinghai soda plants plan to conduct overhauls, while Yunxing has resumed operation, and Lianyungang has successfully produced products. Supply is fluctuating. The spot price is stable, and downstream purchasing sentiment is average. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash is under pressure, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry, leading to price declines. The subsequent ignition speed will slow down. In the short - term, due to overhauls, supply pressure has eased, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the long - term, under the supply - pressure pattern, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [8]