软商品日报-20250520

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (implied as no specific star for logs but based on context) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides analysis on multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, assessing their supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, with a decrease in low - basis spot of domestic cotton and an upward trend in the basis. The cotton yarn market had low confidence but high price - raising willingness due to low inventory. In April 2025, cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports were 400,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71%. From September 2024 to April 2025, cumulative imports were 866,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. The recent strength of Zhengzhou cotton was driven by Sino - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. The inventory in March - April was well - reduced, and if the negotiations continued to improve, there was an increased expectation of tight inventory at the end of the season. Suggested to wait and see or try the bull - spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - ICE sugar oscillated. In Brazil, the weather in May was favorable for harvesting, and sugarcane and sugar production were expected to rise. Most international consulting firms expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to remain high, above 4 million tons. In China, Zhengzhou sugar maintained an oscillation. In April, the syrup import volume decreased year - on - year. Due to the continuous decline of ICE sugar, the sugar import profit increased, and the import volume was expected to rise later. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and consumption supported the sugar price. The import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly in Q1, which was also bullish for the supply side. However, the downward trend of ICE sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It was expected that the sugar price would maintain an oscillation in the short term, and it was suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price remained stable. In Shandong, due to the decrease in downstream demand, the procurement enthusiasm of warehousemen declined, and the cold - storage shipment speed slowed down. Some warehousemen had completed the procurement for the Dragon Boat Festival, and the procurement volume decreased. With the increase in temperature across the country, the demand for apples decreased, and the listing of seasonal fruits also impacted the apple demand. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Although the flower quantity in the western producing areas was sufficient this year, the fruit - setting rate was low due to high temperature and strong wind during the flowering period, which might lead to lower - than - expected production. There were still differences in the yield expectation, and it was suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU had a small increase, NR had a small increase, and BR had a large decrease. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, the butadiene rubber price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply entered the low - production period, and domestic and overseas producing areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded significantly last week, Yanshan Petrochemical planned to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, Guangzhou Petrochemical continued to be shut down for maintenance, and several other petrochemical plants operated at a reduced load. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate dropped significantly. The domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly last week, and the inventory of tire finished products increased again. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 614,200 tons this week, the bonded - area inventory in Qingdao continued to increase significantly, and the general - trade inventory continued to decrease. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory increased slightly to 13,500 tons last week, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped significantly to 30,900 tons. It was suggested to be bullish on RU&NR, wait and see on BR, and gradually reduce the position of cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - The futures price increased slightly. The spot price of Shandong eucalyptus pulp was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Hebei pine pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of May 15, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp in China was 2.198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.0% compared with the previous period. The domestic imported inventory was relatively high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was still weak, and the recent increase was mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the sustainability was still uncertain. It was suggested to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a pull - back [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The overseas price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the overseas production willingness increased, while the domestic arrival volume continued to decrease, reducing the supply pressure. The peak season was gradually ending, and the log delivery volume would gradually decrease. The radiata pine arrival volume continued to decrease, reducing the inventory pressure. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs might continue to decrease, which was bullish for the supply side. However, the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the price rebound was lack of momentum. It was suggested to wait and see [8]