2025年4月财政数据点评：财政靠前发力有哪些线索？

Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter[1] - April marked the first positive growth in tax revenue for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%[1] - Local government land transfer revenue also turned positive in April, increasing by 4.3% year-on-year, recovering from a decline of 16.5% in March[1] Expenditure Trends - General public fiscal expenditure in the first four months has reached 31.5% of the annual budget, the fastest pace since 2020[1] - In April, public fiscal expenditure grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment (9.6%), health (10.2%), and education (6.0%) expenditures[2] - Infrastructure-related expenditure in April showed a modest growth of 1.8%, significantly lower than the growth in social welfare spending[2] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund income saw a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in April, recovering from a decline of 11.7% in March, driven by improved land transfer revenue[3] - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April, largely supported by accelerated issuance of special bonds[3] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include incomplete statistical information, policy outcomes falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in domestic economic conditions, and fluctuations in exports[3]