Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - National general public budget expenditure reached 9.4 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month[5] - The growth rate of broad fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months was -1.3% and 7.2%, respectively, improving by 1.3 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[7] Tax and Income Insights - Tax revenue continued to recover, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in the first four months, an improvement from a 3.5% decline in the previous month[9] - Non-tax revenue increased by 7.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month, indicating a continued decline in non-tax revenue growth[9] - Corporate and personal income tax showed improvements, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.1% and 7.4%, respectively, reflecting a recovery in the income situation of the real sector[9] Fiscal Policy and Spending Focus - General budget expenditure growth has exceeded the annual expected growth rate of 4.4%, indicating a proactive fiscal policy stance[9] - Social welfare, education, and health-related expenditures saw a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, contributing significantly to overall fiscal spending[9] - Government fund income decreased by 6.7%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, while government fund expenditure grew by 17.7%[9] Future Outlook and Risks - The focus of fiscal policy is shifting towards improving people's livelihoods and stimulating consumption, with potential measures including tax reductions and enhancements to social assistance systems[7] - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in the real estate sector, discrepancies between actual execution and initial budgets, and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[8]
4月财政数据点评:广义财政支出增速继续上升
Changjiang Securities·2025-05-20 15:39