LPR迎来年内首降，以色列准备袭击伊核设施

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks, such as Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's leader's strong stance on nuclear negotiations with the US, have led to increased market risk aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar index, and oil [1][3][17]. - The reduction of LPR this year has boosted the stock market, with heavy - weighted stocks rising significantly and market sentiment turning optimistic [2]. - In the commodity market, different products show various trends. For example, steel prices are in a weak and volatile pattern due to unimproved domestic real - estate and infrastructure demand; copper prices may be weak in the short term due to concerns about fundamental weakening; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as import volume changes and weather conditions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices rose strongly due to geopolitical risks, once regaining the $3300 mark, but the sustainability of geopolitical risks is uncertain, and a new upward trend has not been confirmed. The Fed is waiting and watching, and there is a lack of incremental positive factors in the short term. It is recommended to reduce positions in the short term [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The discovery that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities has increased market risk aversion, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. It is expected that the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The reduction of LPR and the government's emphasis on financial support for the real economy have led to a rise in risk appetite in the stock market, with heavy - weighted stocks rising significantly. In the short term, retail investors' entry may be the reason for the continuous increase in funds. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the impasse of the Trump tax - cut bill, and Google's disappointing developer conference have led to a decline in market risk appetite. The US stock market is still in a volatile pattern, and the upside space is limited after approaching the upper limit of the volatile range [26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The reduction of deposit rates and LPR, and the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation. The problem with going long on long - term treasury bonds is the lack of odds. It is recommended to go long in the medium term but choose the right time and collect low - priced chips as much as possible [30][31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable. Due to high raw material costs and losses, the number of停产 or减产 enterprises is increasing, and the supply pressure is easing. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low and volatile to digest inventory [32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices have fallen. The increase in warehouse receipts and the weakening of the futures market have made the spot market pessimistic. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the decline in spot inventory can drive the continuous strengthening of spot prices and support the futures market [34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Steam coal prices continue to decline. Although the daily consumption of thermal power has improved in May, it is still in the off - season. The market is waiting for the recovery of demand in June to support prices, and attention should be paid to the support at the 600 - yuan level [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The inventory of iron ore in major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased slightly. The market is waiting for new orders in June - July. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and arrange a small number of positive spreads at low prices [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC has raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean exports in May. Due to bad weather in Argentina and the US, and increased domestic soybean meal transactions, the futures price is expected to be volatile, and the pressure on the spot market remains [38][39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China's palm oil imports in April decreased month - on - month, while Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased month - on - month. The oil market rebounded, but it still lacks the driving force for a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to the determination of the US RVO obligation in 2026 [40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market is weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is in a downward trend, and the supply is stable while the demand is expected to weaken. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish in the medium - to - long term [42][43]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - From a long - term, medium - term, and short - term perspective, the supply of pigs is still under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [44][45]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton imports in April continued to decline, and the import of cotton yarn was relatively stable. The sowing of US cotton has accelerated but is still slower than normal. The demand for upstream cotton is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the future. Attention should be paid to the progress of domestic cotton inventory reduction and Sino - US trade negotiations [50][51]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Thailand has cancelled incentives for the steel manufacturing industry, and Australia has launched an anti - dumping sunset review on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are in a weak and volatile pattern, and it is expected that they will continue to fluctuate in the near future. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term and use the spot for hedging on rebounds [52][55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi is about to enter the roasting furnace maintenance stage. The spot price of alumina has risen. It is recommended to wait and see [56][58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead - zinc mine in Russia will not suspend operations as planned. The terminal demand for lead is weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze overseas. The short - term price of lead is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention can be paid to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In April, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the export of zinc alloys increased month - on - month. The pattern of near - strong and far - weak for zinc remains unchanged. It is recommended to short on rallies with a safety margin in the medium term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [61][65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - In April, China's imports of copper concentrates increased, while imports of refined copper decreased. The production of refined copper and copper products increased. Macro factors have a neutral impact on copper prices in the short term, and the market is worried about the weakening of fundamentals. It is recommended to conduct band trading [66][70]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The average winning bid price of photovoltaic modules has decreased. The silicon material enterprises' joint production - cut action is still under discussion. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage strategies rather than unilateral operations [71][73]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In April, the export of industrial silicon increased month - on - month, and the import decreased. The demand is not improving significantly. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds and the cash - flow risk of large enterprises [74][76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply is still in excess, and the cost support is moving down. Although there is potential marginal positive news for overseas energy - storage demand, the market is still weak. It is recommended to control short positions and pay attention to potential supply disturbances [80][81]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, China's imports of refined nickel increased significantly. The price of nickel is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on band trading in the short term and long on dips in the medium term [82][83]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - API crude oil inventory has increased, and gasoline and refined oil inventories have decreased. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East may lead to price fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [84][85]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU and the UK have connected their ETS systems, which will improve trade and cooperation and increase market liquidity. European carbon prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [86][88]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA has decreased, and the basis has declined rapidly. Due to supply disturbances and marginal strengthening of demand, PTA valuation has been repaired, but it has recently adjusted due to demand - side rumors. It is expected to be in a short - term adjustment [89][90]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from alumina is good. The rise in the caustic soda market is indirectly affected by the alumina market and is unlikely to have a significant increase [91][92]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is mainly stable. The paper mill's willingness to purchase pulp is not strong. The pulp market is expected to be volatile [93][94]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is in a narrow - range adjustment. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile [95]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of styrene in Shandong has decreased. An enterprise's device may return soon, which will relieve the short - term supply shortage. The styrene - benzene spread is expected to narrow [96][97]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories have decreased. The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [98][100]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in North China is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply is low due to ongoing maintenance, and the demand is average. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [101]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price is slightly volatile, and the spot price is weak. The glass market is expected to operate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [102][103]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Houthi rebels have blockaded two Israeli ports. The market sentiment may be supported, but the upside space of the EC2506 contract is limited. The short - term market is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the risk of spot prices falling short of expectations [104][105].