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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250521
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-21 01:11

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term performance of domestic and foreign bean futures prices is still in a volatile range, and the palm oil price has limited rebound space and is expected to be volatile and strong [5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - View: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [5][7]. - Core Logic: With the increase in imported soybeans, most oil mills' operating rates are gradually recovering. The提货量 of oil mills has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period in previous years. After terminal replenishment, the enthusiasm for further procurement is not high. The domestic market continues to trade on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic. The weather during the US soybean sowing period, China's procurement rhythm, and the loading rhythm of South American soybeans continue to affect the performance of US soybean futures prices. Recently, the linkage between domestic and foreign bean futures prices has been repaired [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - View: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8]. - Core Logic: The production and demand of palm oil in Southeast Asia are both increasing. Whether the export of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will continue to accumulate. Indonesia's increase in the export tax on crude palm oil is beneficial to boosting the export of Malaysian palm oil and alleviating the inventory pressure. The increase in domestic palm oil purchases by importers helps to replenish the low domestic palm oil inventory. Although there is a certain recovery expectation for palm oil demand, the reaction in the spot market is limited, and the short - term rebound space of palm oil is limited [8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil (2509) - View: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is volatile [7]. - Core Logic: It is affected by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].