宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250521

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The iron ore market shows a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, with demand falling from a high level and supply remaining high and expected to rise. However, due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large. Attention should be paid to the change in hot metal production [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level at the MA10 line [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is starting to decline, but the decline is relatively limited, still providing some support for ore prices, yet the upward momentum is weakening. - Port arrivals have dropped to a low level again, leading to a decrease in port inventories. However, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly, reaching the second - highest weekly level this year, and subsequent arrivals are expected to rise. Domestic ore production is also active, and ore supply remains at a relatively high level. - Currently, iron ore demand is falling from a high level, while supply remains high and is expected to increase. The supply - demand pattern is weakening, but due to high - level demand and deep futures price discounts, the downward resistance is large, resulting in a volatile trend for ore prices. Attention should be paid to the change in hot metal production [3].