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天弘科技：以太网交换机、ASIC服务器双轮驱动-20250521
CLSCelestica(CLS) 国金证券·2025-05-21 01:23

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 133.02basedona20XPEfor2026[4].CoreViews−ThecompanyisaleadingmanufacturerofASICserversandEthernetswitches,benefitingfromthegrowthinAIinferencedemand,particularlyfrommajorcloudserviceprovidersinNorthAmerica[2][3].−Thecompanyisexpectedtorecoverfromashort−termdeclineinserverrevenueduetoGoogle′sTPUproducttransition,withanticipatedgrowthresuminginthesecondhalfof2025[2].−ThecompanyisactivelyexpandingitscustomerbaseforASICservers,havingbecomeasupplierforMetaandsecuredaprojectwithaleadingcommercialAIcompany[2][3].SummarybySections1.DeepLayoutinASICServersandEthernetSwitches−Theimportanceofinferencecomputingpowerisincreasing,andtheASICindustrychainisexpectedtobenefitfromthistrend[14].−ThecompanyispositionedtobenefitfromthevolumegrowthofASICserversandtheexpansionofitscustomerbase,particularlywithGoogleandMeta[27][31].−TheEthernetswitchbusinessispoisedtogrowduetothetrendofAIEthernetnetworking,withincreaseddemandforhigh−speedswitches[32].2.TransitionfromEMStoODM−ThecompanyisshiftingfromanEMSmodeltoanODMmodel,whichisexpectedtoenhancecustomerbindingandimproveprofitability[47].−Therevenuefromthehardwareplatformsolutions(ODM)isprojectedtogrowsignificantly,contributingtooverallrevenuegrowth[50][52].−Thecompany′sgrossmarginandoperatingprofitmarginhavebeensteadilyincreasingduetothegrowthofitsODMbusiness[52].3.ASICIndustryandCompanyAlpha−Thecompanyiswell−positionedintheASICserverandEthernetODMswitchmarket,benefitingfromindustrytrendsandnewcustomeracquisitions[3][4].−Thecompany’snetprofitisforecastedtogrowsignificantlyoverthenextfewyears,withexpectedprofitsof133.02 based on a 20X PE for 2026 [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of ASIC servers and Ethernet switches, benefiting from the growth in AI inference demand, particularly from major cloud service providers in North America [2][3]. - The company is expected to recover from a short-term decline in server revenue due to Google's TPU product transition, with anticipated growth resuming in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base for ASIC servers, having become a supplier for Meta and secured a project with a leading commercial AI company [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Deep Layout in ASIC Servers and Ethernet Switches - The importance of inference computing power is increasing, and the ASIC industry chain is expected to benefit from this trend [14]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the volume growth of ASIC servers and the expansion of its customer base, particularly with Google and Meta [27][31]. - The Ethernet switch business is poised to grow due to the trend of AI Ethernet networking, with increased demand for high-speed switches [32]. 2. Transition from EMS to ODM - The company is shifting from an EMS model to an ODM model, which is expected to enhance customer binding and improve profitability [47]. - The revenue from the hardware platform solutions (ODM) is projected to grow significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth [50][52]. - The company's gross margin and operating profit margin have been steadily increasing due to the growth of its ODM business [52]. 3. ASIC Industry and Company Alpha - The company is well-positioned in the ASIC server and Ethernet ODM switch market, benefiting from industry trends and new customer acquisitions [3][4]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow significantly over the next few years, with expected profits of 593 million, 765million,and765 million, and 871 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]. - The company is expected to gain market share as it expands its customer base and increases the complexity of its products [31]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 7.96billionin2023to7.96 billion in 2023 to 15.89 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.1% [8]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 467millionin2023to467 million in 2023 to 1.296 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational performance [8].