LPG：短期支撑走强，关注内盘反弹

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, indicating that short - term support is strengthening, and attention should be paid to the rebound of the domestic market. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - For PG2506, the yesterday's closing price was 4,225 with a daily decline of 0.96%, and the night - session closing price was 4,236 with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The yesterday's trading volume was 41,210, a decrease of 17,245 from the previous day, and the position was 39,028, a decrease of 4,754 from the previous day [1]. - For PG2507, the yesterday's closing price was 4,156 with a daily decline of 1.12%, and the night - session closing price was 4,160 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The yesterday's trading volume was 31,248, an increase of 1,300 from the previous day, and the position was 59,441, an increase of 5,744 from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 06 contract was 675 yesterday, compared to 634 the day before [1]. - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 06 contract was 775 yesterday, compared to 734 the day before [1]. - Industrial Chain Price Data: - The PDH start - up rate this week was 58.0%, down from 59.6% last week [1]. - The MTBE start - up rate was 56.1%, down from 61.4% previously [1]. - The alkylation start - up rate was 41.0%, down from 42.2% previously [1]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7]. Market Information - PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Puyang Far East Technology Co., Ltd. (starting on May 12, 2023, end time to be determined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (starting in late November 2023, end time to be determined), etc. [8]. - Saudi CP Expectations (May 19, 2025): - For June, the expected price of propane was 584 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 564 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9]. - For July, the expected price of propane was 557 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 537 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [9]. - Domestic Refinery Maintenance Plans: Many refineries have maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (starting on May 14, 2024, end time to be determined), Panjin Haoye (starting on April 5, 2024, end time to be determined), etc., with varying normal production and loss volumes [10].