棕榈油：印尼洪水炒作存疑，马来库存压力仍大，豆油：豆系驱动偏弱，区间震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The speculation about floods in Indonesia is questionable, and Malaysia still faces significant inventory pressure [1]. - Soybean oil: The driving force of the soybean sector is weak, and it mainly fluctuates within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 7,984 yuan/ton (down 0.80% during the day, up 0.88% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,754 yuan/ton (down 0.54% during the day, up 0.34% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,277 yuan/ton (down 0.20% during the day, up 1.29% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,884 ringgit/ton (up 1.54% during the day, up 0.85% at night), and CBOT soybean oil主力 at 49.48 cents/pound (up 1.12%) [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 514,650 lots (down 154,250) and an open interest of 397,913 lots (up 10,473). Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 378,133 lots (down 13,476) and an open interest of 602,914 lots (down 2,419). Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 352,218 lots (down 105,292) and an open interest of 287,993 lots (down 892) [1]. - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (down 50), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,160 yuan/ton (down 50), and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 960 dollars/ton (down 10) [1]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 566 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 406 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 23 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,363 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 230 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were - 4 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 204 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOC Forecast: In May, the price of crude palm oil in Malaysia is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. From June to September, global vegetable oil demand will be favorable for palm oil, limiting price declines. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs is expected to increase imports and reduce soybean oil import demand. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed to 51 dollars. Due to the high - base effect, production from May to September is expected to increase moderately. The export to sub - Saharan Africa and ASEAN has increased, while exports to other regions have decreased. The US biodiesel production and the consumption of main raw materials have declined [4]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: From May 1 - 20, AmSpec reported an export volume of 720,422 tons (up 1.55% from the same period last month), ITS reported 741,560 tons (up 5.3%), and SGS estimated 651,381 tons (up 13.73%) [5][6][7]. - USDA Pressing Weekly Report: As of the week ending May 16, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was 2.31 dollars per bushel (up 7% from the previous week). In 2024, the average pressing profit was 2.44 dollars/bushel, lower than 3.29 dollars/bushel in 2023 [7]. - CONAB Data: As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% (compared to 98.5% last week, 97% last year, and a five - year average of 98.5%) [7]. - Anec Forecast: Brazil's soybean exports in May are expected to be 1,452 million tons (up 1.75% from last week's forecast). If realized, it will be 100 million tons more than the same period last year [8]. - Abiove Data: In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 468 million tons of soybeans, producing 355 million tons of soybean meal and 96 million tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2,578 million tons, soybean meal was 220 million tons, and soybean oil was 32 million tons [8]. - EU Commission Data: As of May 18, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 251 million tons (compared to 308 million tons last year), and soybean imports were 1246 million tons (compared to 1165 million tons last year) [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [9].