国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250521

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force is slowing down [2][4]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both are in low - level oscillations [2][7][8]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Due to the resonance of the black - metal sector and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, they are in weak oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both are in bottom - level oscillations [2][18]. - Steam Coal: With the increase in coal mine inventories, it is in a weak and oscillating state [2][22]. - Logs: In a weak oscillation [2][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Tracking: The futures closed at 725.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The import and domestic ore prices had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also showed different fluctuations [5]. - Macro and Industry News: On May 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6% last month), and the 1 - year LPR was 3% (down from 3.1% last month) [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Tracking: RB2510 closed at 3,058 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.59%); HC2510 closed at 3,202 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.37%). Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also fluctuated [8]. - Macro and Industry News: South Korea continued to impose anti - dumping duties on stainless steel sheets from China, etc. In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 8602 million tons, with daily output down 4.3% month - on - month. From January to April, Hebei had the highest crude steel output [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices of different contracts decreased. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide had different changes, and the price spreads also fluctuated [13]. - Macro and Industry News: In April 2025, China's silicon - manganese exports and imports, manganese ore imports data were released. South32 resumed Australian manganese ore exports, and NMT announced the June 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [15][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Tracking: JM2509 closed at 838.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.77%); J2509 closed at 1407.5 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.44%). Spot prices and basis, spreads had different changes [18]. - Price and Position Situation: Northern port coking coal quotes and May 20 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On May 20, for JM2509, long positions increased by 6841 hands, short positions increased by 6888 hands; for J2509, long positions increased by 750 hands, short positions increased by 582 hands [18][19][20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Steam Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: ZC2506 had no trading, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [22]. - Fundamentals: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were given. On May 20, for ZC2506, long and short positions both decreased by 0 hands [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24]. Logs - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [27]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to April 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [29]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [29].