原油：正套轻仓持有，关注地缘风险

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests holding a light long position in the bull spread of crude oil and paying attention to geopolitical risks. The WTI June crude oil futures closed down 0.13 dollars per barrel, a 0.21% decline, at 62.56 dollars per barrel; Brent July crude oil futures closed down 0.16 dollars per barrel, a 0.24% decline, at 65.38 dollars per barrel; SC2507 crude oil futures closed up 3.20 yuan per barrel, a 0.69% increase, at 467.80 yuan per barrel. The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Market - WTI June crude oil futures closed at 62.56 dollars per barrel, down 0.13 dollars per barrel (-0.21%); Brent July crude oil futures closed at 65.38 dollars per barrel, down 0.16 dollars per barrel (-0.24%); SC2507 crude oil futures closed at 467.80 yuan per barrel, up 3.20 yuan per barrel (0.69%) [1] Global News and Events - Vietnam's rubber group plans to build an industrial park in the US, the national oil company seeks to increase crude oil purchases from ExxonMobil, and the shipping group plans to establish a logistics center in the US [2] - Indonesia's finance minister expects the country's crude oil price to be between 60 - 80 dollars per barrel in 2026 [2] - India plans to spend 10 billion dollars to buy 112 crude oil tankers by 2040 [2] - In April, China's industrial added - value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year and 0.22% month - on - month [2] - China's one - year loan prime rate as of May 20 was 3%, in line with expectations and down from the previous 3.10% [2] - Australia's central bank interest rate decision as of May 20 was 3.85%, in line with expectations and down from the previous 4.10% [2] - Germany's April PPI monthly rate was - 0.6%, worse than the expected - 0.3% [2] - The eurozone's seasonally adjusted current account in March was 50.9 billion euros, up from the previous 34.3 billion euros [2] - The EU has approved the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet vessels, with more sanctions in the pipeline [2] - China's total social electricity consumption in April was 772.1 billion kWh, down from the previous 828.2 billion kWh [2] - Canada's April CPI monthly rate was - 0.1%, better than the expected - 0.2% [2] - The eurozone's May consumer confidence index preliminary value was - 15.2, better than the expected - 16 [2] - Qatar's North Field East expansion project is expected to be put into production in mid - 2026 [2] - The key point of new sanctions against Russia is the oil price cap [2] - Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield has reached its production capacity limit, and oil production is not expected to rise further this year [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production increased by 2% this month to 1.86 million barrels per day, with Tengiz producing 932,000 barrels per day [2] - NATO countries are trying to control shipping through the Baltic Sea [2] - Ukraine suggests lowering the price cap on Russian oil to 30 dollars per barrel [2] - Iraq states that all investment transactions should go through the government [2] - The UK and its partners are working to tighten the oil price cap [2] - Saudi Arabia's economy is ready to handle various oil price scenarios [2] - Poland's oil company discovered a new small oilfield with reserves of up to 2 million barrels [3]