能源化工日报-20250521

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The PVC market is in a state of loose supply - demand due to weak demand and over - capacity. The price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a short - term oscillatory trend. In the medium - term, with sufficient supply and limited demand growth, the 09 contract is mainly considered for short - selling [3]. - The rubber market has a weak upward drive due to strong supply increase expectations and weak downstream demand, despite some bottom support from raw material prices [4][5]. - The urea market is expected to oscillate. Supply is stable, and demand from fertilizer use has release expectations, but there is obvious upward price pressure [6]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly due to relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment [7][8]. - The plastic market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term. Although supply - side pressure has eased, downstream demand remains weak [9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - Price: On May 20, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4949 yuan/ton (-10), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - Supply - demand: High inventory, slightly lower than last year. Demand is dragged down by the real estate industry and exports are restricted. There are new investment plans on the supply side [2]. - Macro - factor: Short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the substantial impact on demand is still expected to exist [2]. Caustic Soda - Price: On May 20, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2533 yuan/ton (-41), and prices in the Shandong market changed [3]. - Supply - demand: Supply has high - level production, new production expectations, and high - level inventory with difficult destocking. Demand is affected by tariffs in non - aluminum industries, and there are different situations in the aluminum industry [3]. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation, medium - term short - selling for the 09 contract [3]. Rubber - Price: On May 20, affected by storage information, the RU center of gravity slightly decreased. Various rubber prices and spreads are provided [4][5]. - Supply - demand: Short - term raw material prices provide bottom support, but later supply increase is expected to be strong, and downstream demand is weak [4][5]. Urea - Price: The 2509 contract rose 0.11% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price declined [6]. - Supply - demand: Supply is stable, and demand from fertilizer use has release expectations. Exports have some elasticity, but there is obvious upward price pressure [6]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased [6]. Methanol - Price: The 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2256 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [7]. - Supply - demand: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is wait - and - see, with low willingness to purchase high - price methanol [7][8]. - Inventory: Sample enterprise inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. Plastic - Price: On May 20, the 2509 contract fell 0.22% to close at 7222 yuan/ton, and different types of plastic spot prices changed [9]. - Supply - demand: Supply - side production and output decreased due to increased maintenance. Downstream demand has mixed performance, with short - term export increase but weak internal demand [9]. - Inventory: Upstream production and trade inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent [9].