长江期货黑色产业日报-20250521

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black - industry products including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and also presents relevant economic news. It suggests that different products face different supply - demand situations and price trends in the short - term [1][3][4]. - Rebar: Despite the improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the implementation of favorable domestic monetary policies, the market is still waiting for fiscal policy support. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to low valuation but weakening demand [1]. - Iron Ore: The market is affected by factors such as the fading of tariff - related positive sentiment, uncertain export rush, and insufficient domestic demand. The 09 contract is expected to trade in a range, and 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1]. - Coking Coal: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the profit - repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises and import coal price fluctuations [3]. - Coke: The market is short - term weak and may face a second round of price cuts if terminal demand does not improve. Key factors to watch include steel sales, blast - furnace operation, and coking coal cost support [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Price: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 142 (+11) [1]. - Macro: Sino - US talks had better - than - expected results with significant tariff cuts, and domestic monetary policy benefits have been implemented, but the market is waiting for fiscal policy [1]. - Industry: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded significantly, and inventory decreased again. However, demand will face seasonal weakening, and steel mills have little willingness to cut production due to good profits [1]. - Outlook: The current futures price is lower than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a low static valuation. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Iron Ore - Price: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 763 yuan/wet ton (+1), the Platts 62% index was 100.10 dollars/ton (- 0.25), and the PBF basis was 82 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Supply - demand: The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,706.10 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 283.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,127.25 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.44. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [1]. - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see or focus on 9 - 1 arbitrage opportunities [1]. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, and the supply of coking coal remains abundant. The online auction failure rate of coal mines is high, and some coal prices are falling [3]. - Demand: After the first round of price cuts for coke, the profit of coking enterprises has narrowed, and they maintain a rigid - demand procurement strategy. Steel mills also keep low - inventory operation [3]. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally resolved, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [3]. Coke - Supply: After the first - round price cut, the profit of coking enterprises has narrowed, but cost support allows normal production. However, the production enthusiasm of some coking enterprises varies [4]. - Demand: Hot - metal production is at a high level, but terminal demand recovery is weak. Steel mills adopt a low - inventory strategy and mainly purchase for rigid demand [4]. - Outlook: The market is short - term weak, and there may be a second - round price cut if terminal demand does not improve [4]. Economic News - LPR: In May, both the 5 - year and 1 - year LPRs were cut by 10 basis points. The 5 - year LPR is 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR is 3% [6]. - Industrial Output: In April, the output of Chinese rebar was 17.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the output of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The output of cars was 2.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; the output of air - conditioners was 30.833 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [6]. - Re - production: Jilin Jianlong's non - oriented silicon steel production line resumed production ahead of schedule on May 15 [6]. - Mortgage Rate: The first - home mortgage rate in China will enter the "2 - digit" era, reducing the monthly mortgage payment for homebuyers [6].