生猪：情绪偏弱，阶段性去库

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current sentiment in the pig market is weak, with a phase of inventory reduction. The north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, group sales of piglets have decreased, and there is evidence of inventory accumulation from the recent pressure of fat pig sales. The official piglet numbers confirm the inventory, leading to a weakening of expectations. There is a possibility of a phase of weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and the far - month spread currently deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. Long - term, it is advisable to continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures Prices: The prices of pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 are 13,355 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,690 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 13,360 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For the pig 2507 contract, the trading volume is 5,426 lots (down 1,545 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 27,030 lots (down 704 lots from the previous day); for the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 14,313 lots (down 7,885 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 78,680 lots (down 663 lots from the previous day); for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 3,176 lots (down 1,047 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 32,179 lots (up 315 lots from the previous day) [2]. - Spreads: The basis of pig 2507, 2509, and 2511 contracts are 1,395 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), 1,060 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 1,390 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The 7 - 9 spread is - 335 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 9 - 11 spread is 330 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. The strength levels are classified as weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].