研究所晨会观点精萃：央行下调LPR利率，国内风险偏好回升-20250521

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials' cautious remarks and upcoming US - Japan talks led to a decline in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. EU's 17th round of sanctions on Russia and the possible failure of the Iran nuclear negotiation increased short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Domestically, April's domestic economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong export performance. The central bank's reduction of LPR rates and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates further eased monetary policy, boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to be short - term volatile with a short - term cautious long - position strategy; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; different commodity sectors also have corresponding short - term trends and operation suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Macro: Overseas, the US dollar index fell, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, April's economic data showed a slowdown in domestic demand but strong exports. The central bank's rate cuts and commercial banks' deposit rate cuts boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term volatile and can be short - term cautiously long; bonds are at a short - term high and should be observed cautiously; black metals are short - term low - level volatile and should be observed cautiously; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and should be observed cautiously; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile and rebounding and can be cautiously long; precious metals are short - term high - level volatile and can be cautiously long [2]. - Stock Index: Supported by sectors such as cultivated diamonds, biomedicine, and millet economy, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the slowdown in domestic demand, strong exports, and monetary policy easing, short - term cautious long - position is recommended [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices rose. Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the weakening of the US dollar supported the rebound of gold prices. The Fed's policy path is the core contradiction. Long - term, the global de - dollarization trend supports gold. For silver, due to geopolitical tensions and manufacturing weakness, short - term observation is recommended [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot and futures markets were stable, and trading volume increased slightly. Despite the LPR rate cut, market confidence was still weak. Demand was weak, and supply was expected to remain high. Short - term, the steel market may be range - bound [5][6]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills' profitability was good, and iron - water production was high. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term, iron ore is strong, and medium - term, a short - position strategy at high prices is recommended [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were stable. Demand weakened, and supply continued to decline. Short - term, the prices of ferroalloys will continue to fluctuate [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market focused on the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the Iran nuclear negotiation. Oil prices were volatile and slightly higher. Short - term, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [8]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices followed crude oil and were volatile. Supply was low, and demand was boosted. Inventory transfer was smooth, and short - term, it will follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level [8]. - PX: PX prices rose due to many maintenance and the resonance of the polyester sector. It will remain in a tight - balance situation. There may be a risk of decline if downstream production cuts occur [8]. - PTA: The increase in US orders was not universal, and the domestic market was in the off - season. There is a risk of short - term correction, and the price center will follow crude oil [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply decreased due to unexpected maintenance, and inventory decreased. However, with low downstream profits, there is a risk of short - term correction, and it will be high - level volatile [9]. - Short - Fiber: Polyester prices were high - level volatile, and short - fiber prices were slightly lower and overall stable. With stable downstream start - up and expected release of orders, it will continue to be volatile [10]. - Methanol: The price of methanol in Taicang was weak. Supply improved marginally, but overall supply was still sufficient, and demand was weak, so the price was under pressure [10]. - PP: The domestic PP market price was weak. Although there was a short - term inventory transfer, supply was at a high level, and demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of PP exports on demand [11]. - LLDPE: The polyethylene market price was adjusted. Import profit was favorable, but overall pressure was not effectively relieved, and the price increase was limited [11]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price was stable with slight fluctuations. In the short - to - medium term, the price was strong and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, it was under pressure due to high production and limited demand [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: China's April refined copper production increased. Social inventory increased, and the processing fee was low. With the approaching of the off - season and the impact of tariff reduction, copper prices are short - term volatile, and medium - term short - position opportunities can be sought [14]. - Aluminum: The import of primary aluminum increased. Domestic and overseas inventory changes led to a price decline, but the short - term decline space is limited. Short - term short - position should be cautious [14]. - Tin: Supply constraints still exist. The mid - term raw material gap is rigidly restricted. Demand is in the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile [15]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: CBOT soybean prices rose due to concerns about South American crop damage. The future rainfall in Argentina is expected to be normal, and the damage situation needs verification [16]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans is expected to weaken. The supply of oil mills has returned to normal, and the basis is weak [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The inventory of soybean oil increased, and the basis was weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil decreased, but the market was in the off - season. The fundamentals of soybean and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak [17]. - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil continued to rebound. Domestic inventory has a turning point, but import profit is still inverted. International export growth is limited, and the price increase space is restricted [18]. - Pig: After the May holiday, terminal demand was weak, and supply was stable. Spot prices are under pressure, and futures prices are expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [18]. - Corn: Under the pressure of registered warehouse receipts, corn futures prices declined. Spot prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and futures prices are stable in the 2300 - 2400 range [19].