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金融期货日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-21 01:58

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Stock Index: Trump's tax - cut bill is in a deadlock, there is infighting within the Republican Party, and there are discussions about international trade agreements. Domestically, the market rotation is fast and there is no main driving force, so the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Although the A - share market rose moderately on Tuesday, the structural differentiation intensified. The suppression of the bond market by the equity market is limited. The long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection are favored. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited, but the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Stock Index: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the short term [4] 4. Market Review - Stock Index: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.63%, 0.45%, 0.58%, and 0.88% respectively [6]. - Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.24% and 0.20% respectively, while the 30 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - Stock Index: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate with adjustment risks [7]. - Treasury Bonds: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it may fluctuate and rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3865.40 | 0.63 | 52572 | 150105 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2699.40 | 0.45 | 27980 | 51766 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5650.80 | 0.58 | 45384 | 112947 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6019.40 | 0.88 | 124540 | 184920 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.84 | 0.24 | 76231 | 142998 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.95 | 0.20 | 57849 | 109912 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.26 | - 0.03 | 36232 | 42558 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | - 0.03 | 41104 | 94660 | [12]