镍、不锈钢：预计短期偏震荡运行

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The fundamental logic of the market is becoming more prominent. There is an expectation of increased supply in the nickel ore market as the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines weakens. The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, which may provide some support. The new energy chain may face a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. The impact of subsequent tariff policies on the macro - level should be closely monitored [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - Price Forecast: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 13.64% and a historical percentile of 0.2% [2] - Inventory Management Strategies: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of devaluation, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (60% hedging ratio), and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) [2] - Procurement Management Strategies: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] 2. Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Reaching a tariff agreement between China and the United States, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of a new resource tax in Indonesia on April 26th leading to an overall increase in cost, and the lower - than - expected US CPI data increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts [4] - Negative Factors: The end of the rainy season in the Philippines leading to increased ore supply, the weakening support of the MHP nickel sulfate chain, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry with the cost support at the nickel - iron end continuously declining, and the high stainless - steel inventory with no obvious improvement in demand [4] 3. Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 122,870 yuan/ton (0% change), and the LME nickel 3M price is 15,500 US dollars/ton (- 0.86% change). The trading volume is 109,167 lots (0% change), the open interest is 63,519 lots (0% change), the warehouse receipt quantity is 23,142 tons (- 1.40% change), and the basis of the main contract is - 1,735 yuan/ton (- 9.2% change) [5] - Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,840 yuan/ton (0% change). The trading volume is 133,035 lots (0% change), the open interest is 128,677 lots (0% change), the warehouse receipt quantity is 143,780 tons (- 8.05% change), and the basis of the main contract is 720 yuan/ton (2.13% change) [6] - Nickel Industry Inventory Data: The domestic social inventory is 44,151 tons (+ 63 tons), the LME nickel inventory is 202,098 tons (+ 90 tons), the stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons (- 8.4 tons), and the nickel pig iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons (+ 1,158 tons) [7]