聚烯烃日报：下游需求走弱，聚烯烃延续弱势-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating - Plastic is cautiously bearish in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand is weakening, and polyolefins continue to be weak. With an increase in domestic plant maintenance, domestic supply pressure has weakened, and imports are expected to decrease. Propane prices have fallen, but the production profit of PDH - made PP is still in large losses, and many PDH plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is about to enter the traditional off - season, and the inventory of polyolefin producers has decreased, with inventory shifting to the middle and lower reaches [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7222元/吨（-16），PP主力合约收盘价为7047元/吨（-31），LL华北现货为7350元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7420元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7180元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为128元/吨（-34），LL华东基差为198元/吨（+16），PP华东基差为133元/吨（+31） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.4%（-4.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-3.2%）。PE油制生产利润为569.1元/吨（-15.2），PP油制生产利润为89.1元/吨（-15.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 315.9元/吨（-36.7） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 74.5元/吨（-7.1），PP进口利润为 - 531.6元/吨（-57.3），PP出口利润为22.3美元/吨（+7.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为16.7%（-2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.7%（+1.1%），PP下游塑编开工率为45.3%（+0.5%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.9%（+2.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Downstream factories have increased their inventory replenishment efforts, the inventory of polyolefin producers has decreased, and inventory has shifted to the middle and lower reaches [2]