供应有复产可能，出口下滑，工业硅盘面再创新低

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For industrial silicon: Unilateral - Sell on rallies; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Options - None [3][4] - For polysilicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Futures - spot - None; Options - None [8] 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, with potential supply increases from the resumption of production in the northwest and southwest, lackluster consumption, and declining exports [3] - The fundamentals of polysilicon are also weak. With the increase in the number of warehouse receipts, the delivery game is weakening, and the market is expected to run weakly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2505 opened at 8080 yuan/ton and closed at 7910 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (-2.53%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 64706 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9400 - 10000 (-150) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest continued to decline [1] - In April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a 2% increase month - on - month and a 9% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,700 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year. In April 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was 500 tons, a 70% decrease month - on - month and an 83% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5200 tons, a 43% decrease year - on - year [1] Consumption End - The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed different trends. The demand for raw rubber downstream increased rapidly, and the transaction was good, while the overall transaction of D4 was average due to weak demand for room - temperature rubber, and the high - end price declined slightly [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell, opening at 36020 yuan/ton and closing at 35625 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 70536 (63062 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165519 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, and N - type silicon was 36.00 - 39.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25000 tons, a 2.27% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a 7.22% increase month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 21400 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.42GW, a 0.50% increase month - on - month [6] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [7]