Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan. The 5 - month LPR was lowered by 10bp. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][7] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. China's gold imports reached a new high in 11 months last month. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the market is in a weak - oscillation pattern. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [14][15] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The high iron - water production supports the demand for iron ore, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation level has declined, and the futures rebounded after being supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. For coke, although the steel - mill iron - water production is high, some steel mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The futures may continue to decline in the short term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [18][19][20] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. High - level inventories put pressure on the market. For manganese - silicon, investors can consider out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s crude - oil production increase continues, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upwards. The inventory in the ARA region and Singapore has decreased, and the global trade demand has recovered. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main fuel - oil contract [26][27] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract declined. The PX load has decreased, and the import volume has declined. The short - term crude - oil price fluctuates, and the PX valuation is being repaired. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost - end crude - oil changes and macro - policy adjustments [27] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract declined. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations and pay attention to risk control [28] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract declined. The supply has decreased, the port inventory may continue to decline slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29][30] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract declined. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, the downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to risk control [31] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract declined. The raw - material cost support still exists, the supply load has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and attention should be paid to cost - price changes [32][33] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed down. Multiple device overhauls have led to a reduction in supply, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. The price may continue to fluctuate steadily [34] Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed up. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree needs to be considered [35][37] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed down. The production has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is limited. The price of alumina may support the price of caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid - chlorine prices [38] Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed up. The tariff negotiation has achieved results, giving the pulp market some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction actions of international pulp mills and the implementation of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [39][40][41] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, lithium - carbonate prices have continuously hit new lows. The supply may increase, and the demand may weaken. The current supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is advisable to control risks in the short term, and the price rebound needs the support of large - scale upstream production reduction [42][43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downwards. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on the real economy and the callback pressure after the sharp rise of Shanghai copper are factors to consider. It is advisable to conduct short - position operations on the main Shanghai - copper contract [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply may increase in the future, but the current consumption data is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the upward pressure on the tin price is relatively large. It is advisable to take a short - position view [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the downstream loss has increased, and the demand may weaken. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [47] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon and polysilicon main contracts declined. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply reduction is limited, and the cost support has weakened. The price fluctuation has intensified. It is recommended to maintain a short - position view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [48] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract declined, and the soybean - oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans may be abundant in the future. It is advisable to observe the soybean - meal main contract, and for soybean oil, out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom - support range [49][50] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [51][53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a callback [54][55] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The suspension of Sino - US tariff increases is beneficial to cotton. The global cotton supply - demand situation and domestic planting conditions need to be considered. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [56][57][58] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and range - bound operations are advisable [59][60][61] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures had little fluctuation. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a callback [62][63][64] Pigs - The national average price of pigs declined slightly. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe [65][66] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply may increase. It is advisable to go short after a rebound [67][69] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand. It is advisable to temporarily observe [70][71][72] Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of logs closed down. The expected arrival volume has increased, but the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. The market has no obvious driving force [73][74]
早间评论-20250521
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-05-21 02:14