5月LPR下调，关注日美国债异动

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, focus on the verification of economic facts. After the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US, pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export". The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising, and the "tax rate + quota" restriction model may impact global trade. For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the short term and stagflation allocation in the long term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Bureau, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations. However, exports to the US decreased by 21% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%. Labor-intensive product exports were significantly impacted. On May 20, the central bank lowered the one-year and five-year LPRs to 3% and 3.5% respectively. The one-month Hibor fell below 1% for the first time since 2022, and the Hong Kong dollar is set to record its largest monthly decline since 1983. The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US achieved substantial progress, and both sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [2] - The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction model. The impact on global trade depends on the negotiation process with other countries. The US Treasury Secretary warned that if no trade agreement is reached before the tariff suspension period expires in early July, tariff rates will return to previous levels. The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since November 2023. The Japanese 20-year bond auction demand dropped to its lowest level since 2012, and the 30-year yield reached a new high since 1999. The Bank of Japan will maintain the current Japanese government bond reduction plan after the spring of the 2026 fiscal year [2] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] To-Do News - On May 20, the central bank lowered the one-year and five-year LPRs by 10 basis points. The Hong Kong one-month Hibor fell below 1% for the first time since 2022, and the Hong Kong dollar is set to record its largest monthly decline since 1983. The Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once in 2025 and may act earlier if the tariff negotiations make progress. The BIS warned that if investors unwind positions in the $113 trillion foreign exchange swap market, it may trigger a scramble for the US dollar. The Japanese 20-year government bond auction demand dropped to its lowest level since 2012, and the 30-year yield reached a new high since 1999. The Bank of Japan will maintain the current Japanese government bond reduction plan after the spring of the 2026 fiscal year. Putin said that Russia favors a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis after a call with Trump [2][5] Macroeconomic - The report includes charts such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 large and medium-sized cities' commercial housing transaction area (weekly and daily), five listed steel consumption volumes, 10Y and 2Y China-US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rate against major currencies on a weekly basis, US dollar index trend, and interest rate corridor [6] Interest Rates - The report includes charts of the 10Y and 2Y China-US Treasury yield spreads [6][15] Foreign Exchange - The report includes charts of the US dollar exchange rate against major currencies on a weekly basis, US dollar index trend, and interest rate corridor [6][17]