锌价波动短期方向难判断

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The short - term direction of zinc price fluctuations is difficult to judge. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have changed, causing the zinc futures price to rise. The consumption side may face challenges in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening in consumption after May. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3]. Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot market: In the Guangdong region, inventory has been continuously declining, and due to shortages of individual brands, the spot premium has slightly increased. In the East China region, the procurement enthusiasm has declined due to the replenishment of imported zinc ingots in the early stage. In the North China region, procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the overall spot market premium and discount remain stable. In the overseas mining end, the output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. Although the upside space of TC is limited, smelting still has profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm remains, with supply pressure still existing. The inventory of imported mines in China is sufficient, and there are no conditions for a short - term TC reduction. The consumption side may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening in consumption after May [1][3]. - Futures: On May 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,415 yuan/ton and closed at 22,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 94,706 lots, a decrease of 31,390 lots from the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 76,630 lots, a decrease of 8,930 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 22,490 yuan/ton and a minimum of 22,360 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 20, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 156,725 tons, a decrease of 4,075 tons from the previous trading day [2].