黑色建材日报：市场仍显谨慎，黑色延续弱势-20250521

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The market remains cautious, and the black commodities continue to show weakness. Steel prices are running weakly, iron ore prices are fluctuating narrowly, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating downward, and thermal coal prices are stabilizing. The future trends of these commodities depend on factors such as supply - side policies, consumption situations, and tariff policies [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: On the previous day, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton. The trading in the futures market was average, and the overall spot market transactions were relatively weak with steel prices continuing to decline [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the building material output remained stable. With the flood season in the southern region, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Although exports are resilient, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on exports in the future [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should be based on oscillations; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: On the previous day, the iron ore futures oscillated. The main 2509 contract rose 0.28%, and the closing price was basically the same as the previous day. The port spot price index of iron ore increased, and the forward market was active. The cumulative transactions of main ports and forward spot iron ore increased month - on - month [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The iron ore shipments increased this period, and the molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the timing of the shift to a loose situation depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should be based on oscillations; no strategies for inter - variety or inter - period trading are provided [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Market Analysis: On the previous day, the double - coking futures oscillated downward. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking coal transactions were sluggish. The pit - mouth coal price of coking coal continued to decline, and the import coal market was in a poor situation with price inversion and reduced liquidity [5][6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, the supply is relatively stable, high molten iron output ensures consumption intensity, and inventory is at a medium - high level with limited supply - demand contradictions. The short - term decline in coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cuts have a downward drag on coke. For coking coal, as coal prices fall, the supply increases, and the demand maintains resilience with high - level stable inventory. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of coking coal weakens [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal should be traded with a weak - oscillation strategy; coke should be traded with an oscillation strategy; no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [7]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the producing areas, the decline in port prices slowed down, the pit - mouth coal price oscillated weakly, and the market sentiment eased slightly. In the ports, the market continued to be weak, the inquiry demand increased, and the decline in quotes narrowed. The import coal market was running weakly, with the tender price continuing to decline and low procurement enthusiasm [8]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In the short term, the demand for thermal coal lacks support, and as the weather warms up, the price support is obvious. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [8]. - Strategy: No trading strategy is provided [8].