金融期货早班车-20250521

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: The market risk preference has quickly recovered due to the better - than - expected results of the tariff talks. The foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in the second quarter are crucial. The market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy stock index futures at low prices. Short - term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium - to - long - term IH and IF have more attractive valuations [2][3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to economic fundamental pricing. In the short term, treasury bond prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of treasury bond futures [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Stock Index Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 20, A - share four major stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3380.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.77% to 10249.17 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 2048.46 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.24% to 997.68 points. Market trading volume was 1211.2 billion yuan, an increase of 92.3 billion yuan from the previous day. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH. The numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 3836, 199, and 1376 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 46, - 66, - 38, and 57 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +84, +20, - 29, and - 76 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 220.02, 173.97, 72.57, and 45.63 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 20.81%, - 17.6%, - 10.82%, and - 9.77% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 2%, 3%, and 11% respectively. The futures - spot price difference was still at a low level [2]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 20, most treasury bond futures fell. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to 102.36 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.04% to 105.96 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03% to 108.84 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.03% to 119.26 points [3]. - In the open - market operations, the central bank injected 357 billion yuan and withdrew 180 billion yuan, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan. The short - term capital market was neutral recently. In the short term, treasury bond prices have reached a high level and are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price trend of long - term treasury bonds will be affected by fiscal/monetary policies [4]. 3.3 Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of imports, exports, and social activities has declined this week [12].