4月宏观数据分析：关税扰动下表现韧性，但复苏动能仍待增强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data in April showed a two - sided nature. The domestic economy demonstrated strong resilience under tariff shocks, with high - speed consumption growth and better - than - expected exports. However, the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, as indicated by the decline in manufacturing PMI, low price indices, and low real - estate new construction and investment growth rates. The overall macro - economic situation was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum, and macro - policies were required to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][36][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Significantly Declined under Tariff Shocks - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were all below the critical point and declined compared to the previous month. Among the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, while the production, new order, raw material inventory, and employee indices were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in April was 50.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month but still above the critical point. The construction and service industries also declined. With the reduction of Sino - US tariff rates, the manufacturing PMI in May was likely to rise [7]. 2. CPI and PPI Continued to Be Weak in April - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The CPI was weak due to insufficient domestic demand. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The decline in coal and crude oil prices in April dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [8][9][11]. 3. Exports Increased by 8.1% Year - on - Year in April, while Imports Decreased by 0.2% - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a 4.3 - percentage - point decline in growth rate compared to the previous month. Imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from the previous month. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year. Despite the impact of tariffs, the high export growth rate might be related to "entrepot trade" and "rush - to - export" by enterprises. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, exports were expected to maintain high growth in the next few months [14][16]. 4. The Credit Structure in April Was Weak, while M1 and M2 Were in an Improving Trend - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The credit structure was weak, as the confidence and credit demand of residents and enterprises were weakened by tariffs, but the significant increase in government bond issuance offset the decline in credit demand. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend overall [19][24]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and Consumption Growth Remained High - In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year and 0.22% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. The consumption growth rate remained high due to consumption - promotion policies, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth [25]. 6. Real - Estate Sales Adopted a Strategy of Trading Price for Volume and Had a Foundation for Stabilization - From January to April, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the decline rates narrowing. The real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The real - estate market was expected to further narrow the decline in sales area and volume year - on - year. After the "policy bottom" in September 2024, the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging, and the overall drag of real estate on the macro - economy would significantly narrow [27][31][35]. 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in April showed two - sided characteristics. The domestic economy was resilient but lacked recovery momentum. The overall macro - economy was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum. The domestic market had sufficient policy space to hedge against external demand decline through stimulating domestic demand. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [36][38].