新能源及有色金属日报：进口增量超预期，不锈钢承压下行-20250521

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 123,200 yuan/ton and closed at 122,870 yuan/ton, a change of -0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,167 lots, and the open interest was 63,519 lots [1]. - The main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly in the morning and accelerated its decline near the mid - day close, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased. The daily MACD's red bar area did not significantly expand and was close to turning green. There might be a downward trend in the short - term. The 60 - minute line showed a top divergence near 126,400 before May Day and a bottom divergence near 123,000 after May Day. Pay attention to the short - term resistance level of 126,000 - 128,000 and the short - term support level of 122,000 - 123,000 [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 425 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands also decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was generally weak, with no recovery in downstream purchasing willingness and merchants reducing sales volume. The premium and discount increased slightly compared to the previous trading day and remained stable recently. Jinchuan nickel premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, imported nickel premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton, and nickel bean premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 23,142 (-329.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 202,098 (90) tons [2]. Strategy - The trading of refined nickel spot has been relatively sluggish recently, and the support of premium and discount has weakened. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 126,000 - 128,000, and the lower limit is estimated to be around 122,000 - 123,000. There may be a short - term correction. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. For single - side trading, focus on range operations; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,970 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 133,035 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated weakly throughout the day, closing with a negative line. The trading volume of the 07 contract increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased substantially. The daily MACD's red bar area failed to expand further, increasing the possibility of a short - term correction. Continue to pay attention to the resistance level around 13,100. In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market lowered their morning quotations by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared to the previous trading day, mostly at 950 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,175 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,175 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B was 360 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 946.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Recently, due to the decline in nickel - iron raw material prices, the cost support of stainless steel nickel - iron has continued to weaken. It may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The upper limit of the recent range is estimated to be 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is estimated to be 12,500 - 12,600. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks. The medium - and long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].