五矿期货早报有色金属-20250521

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices rebounded after a decline. The market sentiment was bullish, but the copper price rally was expected to be unsmooth. The expected trading range for the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,400 - 78,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it was 9,400 - 9,650 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices recovered. The short - term price was expected to be range - bound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract was 20,000 - 20,280 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it was 2,450 - 2,510 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead index was expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price showed a strong - side oscillation [4]. - Zinc prices had a certain downward risk in the medium term as the zinc ingot social inventory increased [5]. - Tin supply was expected to loosen. If downstream demand remained weak, the tin price center might decline. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract was 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it was 30,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel prices followed a bearish trend. Attention should be paid to the change in LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium. The expected trading range for the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it was 15,000 - 16,300 dollars/ton [8]. - The lithium carbonate price was likely to oscillate at the bottom. The expected trading range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract was 60,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [10]. - For alumina, short - term waiting and seeing was recommended. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 was 2,800 - 3,400 yuan/ton [12]. - The stainless - steel market was expected to maintain a weak - side oscillation in the short term [14]. 3. Summary by Metal Types Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.4% at 9,554 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78,140 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 3,575 tons to 170,750 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 16,000 tons to 46,000 tons [1]. - Price difference: The cash/3M premium was 3.2 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai spot premium over futures dropped to 390 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed up 1.85% at 2,481 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,185 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 6,000 lots to 516,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 tons to 61,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 458,000 tons [3]. - Price difference: The East China spot premium over futures was 70 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.11% at 16,852 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 27.5 dollars to 1,971.5 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,000 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased to 58,200 tons [4]. - Price difference: The refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% at 22,249 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 24.5 dollars to 2,668.5 dollars/ton [5]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 1,500 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,800 tons [5]. - Price difference: The Shanghai basis was 230 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - Market performance: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 264,760 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [6]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts decreased by 94 tons to 8,025 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 85 tons to 2,655 tons [6]. - Supply and demand: The mine supply was expected to loosen, and the downstream demand was weak [7]. Nickel - Market performance: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123,540 yuan/ton, down 0.02%, and the LME main contract closed at 15,530 dollars/ton, up 0.19% [8]. - Raw materials: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [8]. - Inventory: The LME nickel inventory was 202,098 tons, an increase of 90 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index closed at 62,657 yuan, down 1.52%. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,860 yuan, down 0.52% [10]. - Supply and demand: There was a lack of strong drivers on the supply and demand side, and the price was expected to oscillate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.22% to 3,130 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot price: Spot prices in various regions increased [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 54,000 tons to 190,300 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 1,2950 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14]. - Spot price: Spot prices in some markets decreased [14]. - Inventory: The futures inventory decreased by 12,582 tons to 143,780 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1,108,300 tons [14].